Posted by: Lister | August 11, 2007

Has the Death toll reached a million?

Via Craig Murray.

A Just Foreign Policy has been trying to estimate the number of deaths in Iraq. They assume that “Iraq Body Count’s method, while it does not capture all Iraqi deaths as shown by the Lancet studies, captures roughly the same percentage of deaths over time”. There is a little justification for that — given by comparing the two Lancet studies to IBC’s numbers. JFP admits their method isn’t perfect. I think it is rough and ready. But is there a better estimate?

The Lancet report, you may remember, was discounted by Blair even though his Ministry of Defence’s chief scientific adviser said the survey’s methods were “close to best practice” and the study design was “robust”.

The Lancet figures were 655,000 deaths. That was back in 2006.

I’ve put the counter in my blogroll.



  1. Read this about the Lancet published study,

  2. Before delving deep into the mathematics, I thought I’d check the response of YOUR source.

    They don’t seem impressed with David Kane’s conclusion. (He posted there, too — in fact requested the study be posted on the board).

    The British MOD are in no way biased against America. The chief scientific adviser described the (2006) study as “close to best practice” and “robust”.

    I’ll read the mathematics when I have time.

  3. In case you don’t notice, Michael, I’ve posted David Kane and the Lancet.

    It seems that expert opinion is against Kane’s conlusions.

  4. Just foreign policy hasn’t commented on the NEJM/WHO poll. I waited for them to do so before taking down the counter from my blogroll.

    I’m leaving the link, but not the picture with the number.

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