Posted by: Lister | November 16, 2007

Sharon would not have gone to war

Not on July 12th, anyway.
Weisglass: ‘Sharon would have beaten Hizbullah’:

Dov Weisglass, who served as prime minister Ariel Sharon’s bureau chief for two years and then as his special adviser, said he believed Sharon would not have gone to war on July 12, 2006, according to the censored transcript of his testimony to the Winograd Committee, published Thursday.

“The incident [in which Hizbullah kidnapped two soldiers and killed eight others] was a border incident, not substantially different from previous ones. It followed shortly after the tragedy in Gaza [in which terrorists kidnapped one soldier and killed several others], but quantity is not necessarily the same as quality. He would have asked for a few hours of quiet. At some point, I would tell him, let’s call in the army. And then there would be a very serious discussion, he would be very levelheaded… he was very skeptical about the army’s ability to get organized on short notice and he would tell them that the diplomatic umbrella for a border incident is getting shorter all the time.”

Weisglass added that Sharon was well aware of the buildup in Hizbullah power during these years. On the other hand, there were only a handful of actual clashes and it became clear that Hizbullah was playing by certain rules which it did not break.

“Sharon learned to live with this situation, with the policy of highly limited responses according to some kind of modus vivendi in which neither side went too far,” said Weisglass. He added that Sharon also wanted to protect northern Israel because it was flourishing.

Had the Hizbullah ambush taken place during Sharon’s term, “it would not have ended the way it did, because, in my opinion, [going to war] was not the solution that the situation called for,” Weisglass told the committee.

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Responses

  1. Why Hezbollah LOST the War in Lebanon!
    And the Current ‘Present’ Situation in Southern Lebanon

    By Gabriel al-Amin
    Beirut, Lebanon

    http://www.lebanonwire.com/0709MLN/07092429MN.asp

    On July 12, 2006 Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers that led to Israel’s war with them and, by extension, Lebanon itself. Hezbollah has been on Israel’s fence since the latter’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Israel always requested from the international community and from the Lebanese government to deploy its Lebanese Army there instead of Hezbollah militants. Hezbollah, quite naturally, refused! Hezbollah vowed to NEVER allow any other force other than itself to occupy southern Lebanon. Even during the conflict, Hezbollah said it would never agree to allow either the Lebanese army nor international monitors to patrol southern Lebanon.

    [Edited by blog owner to remove rest of linked article. Read the link if you want the rest.]

    Articles and Refernces:

    UNIFL: Not ‘ONE’ complaint filed against Hezbollah since last years cease-fire
    (Jerusalem Post 6/14/2007)
    http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1181813036239&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

    Again, Israeli gloom is misplaced (First Post – 4/17/2007)
    http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=688&WT.srch=1

    Lebanese army, UNIFIL are keeping Hezbollah in check (Haaretz – 2/21/2007)
    http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/828765.html

    Hezbollah’s ‘Victory’? (Washington Post 9/1/2006)
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/31/AR2006083101444_pf.html

    The Lebanese Winnograd Commission (Thomas Friedman, New York Times 5/10/2007)
    http://www.theolympian.com/109/story/104847.html

  2. But there’s little sign that Hezbollah have been disarmed, or that they have lost the support of members. They moved their weapons around in secret before the war (that is why Israel was unable to destroy them) and they still move them around in secret now.

    In fact, Israel itself says that Hezbollah has been re-arming. They have complained to the UN.

    Hezbollah has tripled its arsenal of C-802 land-to-sea missiles and has rehabilitated its military strength north of the Litani River, according to information handed over by Israel to the United Nations.

    […] Ban said Israel has also informed the UN of an increase in Hezbollah activity south of the Litani, but stressed that Israel refused to provided intelligence information on the matter due to the sensitive nature of the sources.

    Not to mention, of course, that Israel’s war aims were the return of its captured soldiers and the destruction of Hezbollah.

    Those aims were not achieved. Winning and losing on both sides of a war is not so strange.


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