Posted by: Lister | January 22, 2009

Israeli intelligence assessment of the Lull

From the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, which is an NGO:

A period of relative quiet between June 19 and November 4:

As of June 19, there was a marked reduction in the extent of attacks on the western Negev population. The lull was sporadically violated by rocket and mortar shell fire, carried out by rogue terrorist organizations, in some instance in defiance of Hamas (especially by Fatah and Al-Qaeda supporters).

Hamas was careful to maintain the ceasefire.

The IDF refrained from undertaking counterterrorism activities in the Gaza Strip, taking only routine defensive security measures along the border fence.

Between June 19 and November 4, 20 rockets (three of which fell inside the Gaza Strip) and 18 mortar shells (five of which fell inside the Gaza Strip) were fired at Israel.

[…] On November 4 the IDF carried out a military action close to the border security fence on the Gazan side to prevent an abduction planned by Hamas, which had dug a tunnel under the fence to that purpose. Seven Hamas terrorist operatives were killed during the action. In retaliation, Hamas and the other terrorist organizations attacked Israel with a massive barrage of rockets.

And the rest is well broadcast in the newspapers.

During the first period the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip were open most of the time ( Israel closed them for short intervals in response to rocket fire). Scores of trucks delivered large quantities of consumer goods through the Karni and Sufa (and later Kerem Shalom) crossings on a daily basis, including supplies of commodities Israel had previously not permitted into the Gaza Strip, such as cement and iron.

That doesn’t give the whole picture. As I posted before, the BBC has a graph of goods into Gaza. Not only were the amount of goods into Gaza lower than normal, the amount dropped in October compared to July — even though there were fewer rockets launched in October than in July.

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